Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.415629 1.476872 1.540309 1.611119 1.688192 1.769810 1.863132
2026-02-08 1.331175 1.412033 1.498457 1.598275 1.711122 1.835647 1.984726
2026-02-15 1.268065 1.361422 1.463539 1.584562 1.725483 1.886217 2.086173
2026-02-22 1.227820 1.331700 1.447586 1.588045 1.755958 1.953376 2.208051
2026-03-01 1.174465 1.283189 1.406222 1.557831 1.742699 1.965182 2.260565
2026-03-08 1.133273 1.246206 1.375631 1.537513 1.738515 1.985738 2.323108
2026-03-15 1.100726 1.217539 1.352971 1.524719 1.741632 2.014036 2.395899
2026-03-22 1.088245 1.211762 1.356871 1.543845 1.784748 2.094899 2.544250
2026-03-29 1.080662 1.211179 1.366520 1.569891 1.837290 2.190562 2.720735
2026-04-05 1.058759 1.192129 1.352349 1.564534 1.847700 2.229091 2.817131
2026-04-12 1.040503 1.176798 1.342009 1.563273 1.862928 2.274422 2.926721
2026-04-19 1.010689 1.146164 1.311283 1.533951 1.838263 2.261262 2.943795
2026-04-26 0.990839 1.127916 1.296278 1.525547 1.842990 2.292079 3.035924
2026-05-03 0.971521 1.109724 1.280659 1.515526 1.844663 2.318057 3.122079
2026-05-10 0.952672 1.091561 1.264437 1.503914 1.843254 2.338902 3.201043
2026-05-17 0.941333 1.082565 1.259698 1.507506 1.863444 2.393360 3.343406
2026-05-24 0.917979 1.057567 1.233277 1.480261 1.837354 2.373988 3.350717
2026-05-31 0.899272 1.038153 1.213716 1.461875 1.823468 2.372972 3.391570
2026-06-07 0.884124 1.023000 1.199389 1.450274 1.819051 2.386632 3.461165
2026-06-14 0.881037 1.023396 1.205676 1.467731 1.858820 2.474340 3.684801
2026-06-21 0.880452 1.026973 1.216214 1.491455 1.909124 2.583122 3.968200
2026-06-28 0.869314 1.016351 1.207188 1.486589 1.914649 2.615569 4.094540
2026-07-05 0.859996 1.007926 1.200914 1.485446 1.925849 2.658449 4.250114